Wimbledon is upon us bringing its grand
mystique and deep tradition. The players are moving from the red dirt (or blue)
to the clean cut, white colored tournament of tournaments. This year’s field
bring in the two hottest players on tour and everyone else. Djokovic and Nadal
come off a solid clay court season and will be looking to capitalize on the
grass. Federer was left reeling after a comprehensive beat down by Djokovic in
the French who ultimately lost in a tight 4 set final to Nadal. It seems as Federer
needs some help to win another major and it will have to come from the rest of
the field. If either Djokovic or Nadal can lose before the semis, Federer will
not face the daunting task of beating both grand slam champions back to back.
As for Andy Murray, he will have the pressure of a whole country along with
knowing he has not been playing well. Do
not expect him to go very far in the fortnight.
#1 Novak Djokovic
Talk about not getting much respect or
maybe it’s just the luck of the draw, but this defending champ has some tough
early challenges. For most players a draw as challenging as this will provide
body blow after body blow until he is taken out. For Nole, it seems as he just
gets stronger the harder and bigger the challenge. The possibility of him
losing the #1 ranking to Nadal or Federer should be added motivation to the
five time Grand Slam winner. I have learned one thing the past year and a half
and that is to NOT bet against the Djoker!
Juan Carlos Ferrero Juan Carlos
Ferrero is a former world #1 and Grand Slam champion. He has been fighting off
injuries but has had a solid 2012 season. He was one of the first Spaniards
considered to be an all surface player (most Spaniards are now) making him a
threat to the world’s #1. The first match is always an interesting one, so
expect a tight match, but I do see Djokovic moving on in three.
In the second round, the young American
stud, Ryan Harrison, will be looking to make his impact NOW. He has been
proclaimed as the “next” American great and a monumental upset at Wimbledon
will definitely place him in the discussion of the greats. Ryan has a big first
serve and forehand which will help him on the grass courts, but Djokovic has
the ultimate neutralizer, the return. Expect another close encounter,
especially the first two sets, but look for Nole to start finding his groove
early in the tournament and beat the American in 3.
The next couple of rounds could be tricky
with a possible encounters against savvy veteran Radek Stepanek, Juan Monaco,
or Richard Gasquet, but Djokovic should pass with flying colors setting his
quarterfinal up against Tomas Berdych.
Their head-to-head is definitely not in
the favor of Berdych, but he does have something over Djokovic, a win at the
All England Club in 2010. Berdych's only win against Djokovic was at
Wimbledon in 2010. This quarterfinal should definitely see both players
at their best with a possible upset in the deck of cards, but don't count on
it. Djokovic is looking to defend his title here and it is difficult to
bet against a man who has made the past 6 Grand Slam finals.
#2 Rafael Nadal
Rafa's draw at the French was a walk in
the park until the final. Here at Wimbledon, it has become a bit tougher.
Thomaz Belluci is a big, lefty serving
Brazilian who usually plays very well against big names. I expect Rafa to
make it through, but it will be a very tight, tight affair.
In the third round, Rafa could be facing
one of two Germans, Tommy Haas or Philipp Kohlschreiber. Haas has
just recently came off winning at Halle, Germany over the great Roger
Federer on grass. Another problematic match for Rafa as Haas is
playing well in the last leg of his career.
In the round of 16 a fellow Spaniard in
Feliciano Lopez could be waiting for Rafa. Of all the Spaniards, this one
could be the most dangerous on this surface. His lefty rocket serve could
serve (pun intended) as a tough task for the two time Wimbledon champ, but with
the courts slowing down entering the second week, expect Rafa to advance.
The quarterfinal possible match up of
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Rafael Nadal is a juicy one. Tsonga is coming off
his best Wimbledon, reaching the semifinals after taking out Roger Federer.
Rafa is coming off a Final and looking to take over the world's #1
ranking. These two players should be coming in HOT and ready to have a
classic battle. Tsonga does have the win over Nadal in their only grass
meeting in Queens last year giving him some belief he can take out the world's
#2. This should be the best match of the tournament before the semis.
#3 Roger Federer
This is his chance! Federer can overtake
both Rafa and Nole with a title here and finally get his #1 ranking back. If he
is able to do it, he will tie Pete Sampras for most weeks at #1 with 286. Roger
has been vocal about gaining the world’s top ranking again as it would give him
another record under his belt. Federer these days still looks like a huge
threat and is better than anyone on tour except for two players and we know who
they are. He is more than capable to beat one of them, but two in the same
tournament has become just too difficult. He will need help from the field to
take one of these juggernauts out before he faces them and hope he can finish
the job with the other. If this happens, expect Roger to gain his 17th major
and his 286th week at #1, both records.
WIth names like Fognini, Llodra, Russel,
Malisse, and Matheieu in his sections, Federer has to be licking his chops.
There is no real threat until the quarterfinals, which should have him
rested and ready to begin his run in the second week at the hollowed
grounds.
A potential match against Big John Isner
could be an intriguing one. John's immense serve can set him up against
the 6 time Wimbledon champ, but expect John to stumble on the way. He has
had a forever memory in his 70-68 win over Mahut, but he hasn't followed it up
with a huge result here. It is easily feasible that Roger won't
face a threat until the semifinal.
#4 Andy Murray
It’s always fun to preview Andy Murray at
Wimbledon as the tournament is in his “backyard”. This year expectations to win
Wimbledon were as high as ever after an extremely tight semifinal at the Aussie
Open against eventual champ Djokovic and joining forces with coach Ivan Lendl.
These days, Murray has been losing matches that he should win routinely, has
had back issues all year, and has been booed by crowds in various countries. He
has really fallen off the radar, but will be itching to give his very best on
the grass.
Nikolay Davydenko is a tough first round
match. This Russian is still hanging around on the tour and can easily
create some trouble for the Scott as he takes the ball early making him even
harder to play on the fast grass surface. Andy could be upset from the
get go, but I will give him more credit than that and see him move on to the
next round.
The possible second round match up against
Ivo Karlovic is a nightmare! Dr. Ivo has one of the fastest serves on
tour and will be a handful to face at The All England Club. Again, Murray
could loose this one easily, but I see him squeaking through. My
confidence in Andy making it past this match is a lot less and it's only
getting shakier.
Kevin Anderson is another serving stud.
He could be ready to fire his rockets at Murray in the third round, if
Andy somehow makes it out of this one, he has young Milos Raonic in the round
of 16. After facing a backboard, and two men with missiles for serves
Andy will be overwhelmed by this big Canadian and should lose this
match. Expect the upset to happen here. If not, Ferrer or Del Potro
will be waiting in the semis. What does all of this mean?
Andy Murray + 2012 Wimbledon = No Title
Semifinal
Roger Federer –
Novak Djokovic
We have been getting used to this
semifinal for the past years. The way the draw has shaped up, the match
up of Djokovic and Federer is likely to happen. Djokovic has had a rock
steady 2012, winning the Aussie Open and losing in the finals of the French.
Difficult to write, but expect him to dominate Roger at The All England
Club setting a rerun final against Rafael Nadal.
Semifinal
Rafael Nadal -
???
Rafa's draw wasn't as easy as the French
but he should have no trouble making it to this point of the tournament.
With Murray out of the way most likely and an inexperienced field at the
All England club, whomever faces Rafa in the semis, should plan to be in and
out quickly. Expect Rafa to be in Sunday's final.
Final
Djokovic-Nadal
This is the match up that the world has
now learned to love. These two athletes have given us a drama, amazing
play, long hours of tv watching, excitement, and everything else that goes with
a rivalry. Throw all stats out the window on this one, but expect one
thing, an exhilarating match that will go the distance! It is
truly a toss up between these two players (I am taking Rafa by a hair).
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